How Pradis sets your daily goal, and why it moves
Your daily goal is your answers to go divided by your days left. Here is what goes into it, with a worked example.
On each chapter page, under Mastery, Pradis shows a daily goal, such as "Daily goal: about 12 questions." It isn't a fixed quota. It changes every day: it goes down when your answers go well and up when they don't. This post shows exactly how it's calculated, so you can read it like a gauge instead of a verdict.
The formula
Daily goal = answers to go ÷ days until your exam, rounded up.
"Answers to go" is our estimate of how many more answers it will take to bring every question in the chapter to three stars. Each question adds an amount that depends on where it stands today. Each row of a table question counts as its own question.
| Where the question stands | Answers it still needs, on average |
|---|---|
| Not answered yet | 6.1 |
| Answered, 0 stars (missed, or right but not sure) | 5.8 |
| ★☆☆ | 4.4 |
| ★★☆ | 2.7 |
| ★★★ mastered | 0 |
Where these numbers come from
A question needs at least three sure, correct answers at scheduled reviews to reach ★★★. In practice it takes more, because some answers along the way are misses, which send the question back to zero stars, and some are "I wasn't really sure", which earn no star. The figures above are averages that include those extra answers: a new question takes about 6 answers to master, one at ★ about 4 more, and one at ★★ about 3 more.
They are starting estimates. Every month we compare them with the number of answers students actually needed, and we'll adjust them if the real numbers differ.
Why the goal goes up and down
Every answer that counts moves a question from one row of the table to another, and that changes your answers to go:
| Your answer | Change in answers to go |
|---|---|
| New question, right and sure (new → ★) | −1.7 |
| ★ question, right and sure (★ → ★★) | −1.7 |
| ★★ question, right and sure (★★ → ★★★) | −2.7 |
| New question, missed (new → 0 stars) | −0.3 |
| ★ question, missed (→ 0 stars) | +1.4 |
| ★★ question, missed (→ 0 stars) | +3.1 |
| Right, but you ticked "I wasn't really sure" | no change |
| Practiced again before it was due, and right | no change |
The biggest single jump comes from missing a question that was one step from mastered. It goes from 2.7 answers to go back to 5.8, because it now needs all three stars again.
Days matter too. Each day that passes divides the remaining work by one fewer day, so a skipped day raises the goal a little, and the closer the exam, the more each day counts.
A worked example: the free Biostatistics chapter
The Biostatistics chapter has 122 questions once each table row is counted as its own question: 19 single questions, 15 multi-part questions and 88 table rows, across 18 topics from sensitivity and specificity to biases. Say your exam is 30 days away and you're partway through. Today the chapter looks like this:
- 30 not answered yet: 30 × 6.1 = 183
- 10 at 0 stars: 10 × 5.8 = 58
- 10 at ★: 10 × 4.4 = 44
- 20 at ★★: 20 × 2.7 = 54
- 52 mastered: 0
Answers to go: 183 + 58 + 44 + 54 = 339. Daily goal: 339 ÷ 30 = 11.3, rounded up to 12 a day.
Tomorrow there are 29 days left. Here is how three different days change the goal:
| Today you | Answers to go | Tomorrow's goal |
|---|---|---|
| Answer 10 questions, all right and sure (4 new → ★, 3 at ★ → ★★, 3 at ★★ → ★★★) | 319 | 319 ÷ 29 = 11.0, so 11 a day |
| Answer the same 10 questions and miss them all | 351.3 | 351.3 ÷ 29 = 12.1, so 13 a day |
| Skip the day | 339 | 339 ÷ 29 = 11.7, so 12 a day |
Real days are a mix of right and wrong, so the goal usually moves by less. Watch the direction: a goal that drifts down means your answers are sticking.
Three numbers that are easy to mix up
| Number | What it counts | Where you see it |
|---|---|---|
| Daily goal | All answers per day, new questions and reviews together, to reach ★★★ by your exam | Chapter page, and Progress once you set an exam date |
| Due today | Questions scheduled for review today | Review tab and chapter page |
| Daily limit | The most reviews Pradis shows you in one day (30 to start; you can set 5 to 50) | Study settings |
Some days you'll have more reviews due than your goal, and some days fewer. The goal is an average across the days you have left.
What the goal doesn't include
The goal counts the work of learning: getting each question to three stars. Mastered questions still come back for a check about every 8 weeks, questions marked "Needs refresh" need two repair answers, and the final check before your exam brings everything back once. That work comes on top, so expect a few more answers a day than the goal, especially in the last weeks.
No exam date yet? The chapter page spreads the work over 4 months until you set one. Set your date in Study settings and the goal is calculated from your real days left.
The goal never predicts your score. It tells you how much work is left, and that's all it claims to know.